One of the most important long-term tasks of Russia remains to strengthen the innovative component of its economic development. The fact that the transition to an innovation-type economy is the only way to restore and develop the economic potential of Russia is now understood by all. However, the implementation of innovative development in practice, in fact, is blocked by these same branches of government as a result of failure to take the necessary decisions to stimulate innovation activity.
In all countries where the processes of transition to the post-industrial information society are underway, structural changes did not occur immediately and not simultaneously in the whole territory, but first in the regions most prepared for perestroika. In the United States, such areas were primarily the Silicon Valley (near San Francisco) and the area of Highway 128 (Boston and the territories adjacent to it from the northeast). In Japan, similar shifts occurred in the industrial belt of Tokyo - Osaka: in France - in the department of the Ile-de-France, the bulk of which is Greater Paris; in the UK - in the "corridors" of London-Liverpool and Edinburgh-Glasgow; in the PRC - in the territory of coastal free economic zones, etc. Such places of concentration of high technologies demonstrated a rapid growth of industrial production, employment, living standards, in sharp contrast to the regions of the declining traditional industries, where massive unemployment and other crisis phenomena arose.
In recent decades, Russia has set ambitious but achievable goals of long-term development - ensuring a high level of the well-being of the population, consolidating the geopolitical role of the country as one of the global leaders that determine the world political agenda. The only possible way to achieve these goals is the transition of the economy to an innovative socially-oriented model of development.
In this paper, an overview of the ten most promising innovative technologies is offered for consideration, the world markets of which in the short and medium term suggest rapid development in the world. Accordingly, these areas are a priority for investing today. The technology selection is based on the six-year research of the IAA Cleandex and Research.Techart in the field of cleantech and innovation.
The second part of the work will consider the issue of the development strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, adopted in 2010 by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
1. Topical world innovative technologies
For further consideration of topical innovative technologies it is necessary to define the term "innovation" and "technology", as well as to identify the main features by which the most promising technologies were selected.
Innovation is an innovation in the field of technology, technology, work organization or management, based on the use of scientific achievements and best practices, ensuring a qualitative increase in the efficiency of the production system or product quality. Innovation is not all innovation or innovation, but only one that seriously enhances the effectiveness of the current system.
Technology is a complex of organizational measures, operations and techniques aimed at manufacturing, maintaining, repairing and / or operating a product with a nominal quality and optimal costs.
The selection of the world innovative technologies as the most promising from the point of view of the economy is made on the following grounds:
· The first sign is the forecasted active growth of the market in the short term. As an example of the screened technology, we can name hydrogen energy, which for 20 years, in fact, can not move forward in any field of application, despite a significant amount of investment from automakers, energy and other companies;
· The second sign is the orientation towards large consumption areas: energy, consumer goods, industrial B2B segments. This criterion does not correspond to many of the innovative medical technologies, since in most cases they are niche;
• The third is the availability of growth potential, which is expressed in overcoming any actual barriers: technological (non-ideal production technology), economic (bottlenecks in the supply chain), legislative and so on. For example, today wind energy is a huge market, which in its volume is ahead of both photovoltaics and all types of biomass. However, the technology of building wind turbines in the near future is unlikely to significantly improve the efficiency of plants, so the market will grow extensively. The first technology - cascade photoelectric converters (FEP), which are used to create solar cells.
The transformation of energy into a photoconductive effect is based on the photoelectric effect that arises in inhomogeneous semiconductor structures upon exposure to solar radiation. The inhomogeneity of the FEP structure can be obtained by doping the same semiconductor with various impurities (creating pn junctions) or by joining different semiconductors with an unequal band gap-the energy of electron detachment from the atom (creation of heterojunctions), or by changing the chemical composition of the semiconductor, resulting in a gradient of the width of the forbidden band (the creation of the valine structures). Various combinations of these methods are also possible.
The efficiency of the conversion depends on the electrophysical characteristics of the inhomogeneous semiconductor structure, as well as the optical properties of the photoconductivity, among which photoconductivity plays the most important role. It is caused by the phenomena of the internal photoelectric effect in semiconductors when they are irradiated with sunlight.
In comparison with FEP of three generations (crystalline, thin-film, organic) cascade FEP have the best indicator of efficiency and temperature stability. To date, the share of this technology in the total volume of the market does not exceed 1%. Incentives for growth in the near future will be the imperfection of FEP of other generations, as well as the rapid growth of the photovoltaic market. Moreover, in addition to the traditional field of application of FEP for installation on roofs, the point of growth will be the integration of FEP into building materials (BIPV) and textiles (SFIT). In Russia, a project for the construction of a cascade FEP plant for $ 150 million is already being implemented on the basis of the FTI them. Ioffe Academy of Sciences.
The next technology in the field of energy refers to the segment of its transmission and distribution - the intelligent power systems SMART (Self Monitoring Analysis and Reporting Technology), Grid and smart meters Smart Meter. SMART technology implies the possibility of electricity transmission in two directions, which is dictated by the development of renewable energy sources with unstable energy output. Due to the significant amount of investments and counteraction of generating companies, SMART implementation in the world will be possible only with state support. According to forecasts, the average annual growth rate of the SMART Grid market in the next five years will be about 19.9%.
According to the "Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2030", the following are the priority directions of scientific and technical progress in the electric power industry: · Creation of highly integrated intelligent system-forming and distribution electric networks of the new generation in the Unified Energy System of Russia (Smart Grids);
· Use of low-temperature superconducting induction electric energy storage devices for electric networks and guaranteed power supply of responsible consumers;
· Widespread development of distributed generation;
· Development of power electronics and devices based on them, primarily various types of network controllable devices (flexible AC transmission systems - FACTS);
· Creation of a highly integrated information and control complex of operational dispatch management in real time with expert decision-making decision-making systems;
· Creation of highly reliable backbone communication channels between different levels of dispatch control and duplicated digital information exchange channels between objects and control centers;
· Creation and wide introduction of centralized systems of emergency control covering all levels of the Unified Energy System of Russia;
· Creation of automated systems for managing the demand for electricity;
· Creation of hydrogen systems for energy storage and coverage of irregularities in the load curve.
The latest technology of the power block is improved batteries, which in the modern world are considered a bottleneck for many technological chains (SMART, hybrid transport, portable electronics). The breakthrough in the near future promises to be the use of nanotechnology in Li-ion batteries, which gradually take over the market of both home appliances and the vehicle market. Over the next five years, the market for Li-ion batteries will grow by almost an order of magnitude. At the same time, a significant share of the market will be occupied by innovative types of batteries.
Progress in electronics today is connected, first of all, with the development of flexible (printed) electronics. The concept of flexible electronics implies the creation of antennas, transistors and even integrated circuits using conductive ink and traditional printing technologies. This allows reduce costs, time to market, use materials that are friendly to nature.
The development of flexible electronics will reduce the cost of radio frequency identification (RFID) systems. RFID is used in access control systems, as well as in cargo labeling (bar code analog).
The third technology in the field of electronics is inorganic (LED) and organic (OLED) LEDs. Currently, LEDs are rapidly growing share of displays, including thanks to displays on organic light-emitting diodes. The development of this market is not so much due to the reduction in their cost price, but because of the concern of the governments of developed countries to reduce energy consumption.
Coating in recent years is an integral supporting technology of any achievements in the modern world. In the near future, innovative gas-thermal and vacuum methods will actively grow in the industry, which allow the application of various functional coatings with characteristic nanosized sizes. Areas of application are extensive: building metal structures, coatings of turbines, the entire oil and gas vertical (pumps, shut-off, regulating devices), chemical industry, etc.
Lasers, although already characterized by a significant volume of the world market, are considered as a promising technology due to a wide range of applications: from medical lasers to industrial processes and military applications. In 2009, the world market for lasers declined by a quarter, but in subsequent years was restored, increasing annually by 5-7%.
The latest technology relates to the field of medicine - this is the targeted delivery of medicines. Unlike most medical technologies, targeted delivery is characterized by rapid introduction and large volume of use. The average annual growth rate until 2015 will exceed 30%.
Shale gas, which accounted for 2.5% of the world's total gas production, became the culprit of a "silent gas revolution."
Among the factors that positively influence the prospects of shale gas production: the proximity of the fields to the sales markets; significant reserves; The interest of the authorities of a number of countries in reducing dependence on imports of fuel and energy resources. At the same time, shale gas has many shortcomings that adversely affect the prospects for its extraction. Among such shortcomings: relatively high cost; unfitness for transportation over long distances; rapid depletion of deposits; a low level of proved reserves in the general structure of stocks; significant environmental risks during production.
A number of experts believe that shale gas is much more expensive than the extracting companies state. According to experts, the real costs of obtaining shale gas are 212--283 US dollars per 1 thousand cubic meters. Some experts believe that companies that produce shale gas artificially understate its cost price.
The extraction of shale gas is not environmentally safe, which forced the authorities of some countries (France, Romania and Bulgaria) to prohibit the exploration of shale gas using the technology of milling. Some experts point out that the well production rate is small, which forces the producers to drill new and new wells due to the rapid depletion of the resources of already developed deposits.
In Gazprom, as of 2012, it is argued that the production of shale gas is "local in nature" and the corresponding market is not fully formed. Some analysts blame the management of Gazprom for "oversleeping" the slate revolution, as a result of which the company risks losing part of its market in Europe. According to researcher of the State Council of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Sun Yongxiang, the shale gas supplies from the USA to Eurasia expected in several years will not create competition for pipeline gas from Gazprom, because, due to the high cost price of shale gas, the costs of its transportation through the ocean and liquefaction / dilution, its price in the end will be significantly higher than the price of gas from Russia.
However, many countries may be engaged in the extraction of shale gas to reduce economic and political dependence on energy suppliers. So, on January 24, 2013, in Davos, with the participation of Viktor Yanukovych, Shell managed to sign an agreement with the Ukrainian government on the division of production from the extraction of shale gas for a period of 50 years. However, environmentalists and public activists accuse the Ukrainian authorities and managers of Shell that they completely ignored the opinion of civil society and did not conduct proper environmental expertise of the project.
2. Strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation until 2020
In December 2010, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation published a draft strategy for the innovative development of the Russian Federation until 2020, "Innovative Russia 2020". This document outlines the main strategic goal of the state: the transition by 2020 of the Russian economy to an innovative development path. The document consists of four main blocks: "Innovative person", "Innovative business", "Innovative state" and "Effective science". In the draft strategy "Innovative Russia 2020" for the first time the spheres of responsibility of the executive bodies of state power were strictly divided.
A distinctive feature of the draft strategy "Innovative Russia 2020" is that the key role is assigned to human potential: "The key objective of innovative development, comparable in importance and scale with the sum of all others - creating conditions for citizens to create the competencies of innovation activities, in other words - competences" innovative person ".
In addition to financial support for innovation, the state is developing an innovation infrastructure through the creation of special economic zones of technology-innovative type, technology transfer centers, technology parks, business incubators and centers for collective use of equipment.
A significant step towards the development of innovation infrastructure was the decision in 2010 to create a territorially separate complex (the Skolkovo innovation center).
The implementation of the project creation and operation of the Skolkovo Innovation Center is carried out in order to develop research, development and commercialization of their results in the following areas:
- energy efficiency and energy saving, including the development of innovative energy technologies;
- Nuclear technology;
- space technologies, especially in the field of communications and navigation systems (including the creation of an appropriate ground infrastructure);
- medical technologies in the field of development of equipment and medicines;
- strategic computer technologies and software.
Despite the positive tendencies and the activation of the state policy in the sphere of innovations, as the world practice, the main driving force for innovative development is private business.
The susceptibility of the domestic business to technological innovation remains low, in 2009, 9.4% of the total number of enterprises in the domestic industry developed and introduced technological innovations, which is significantly lower than the values typical for Germany (69.7%), Ireland (56.7%) , Belgium (59.6%), Estonia (55.1%), the Czech Republic (36.6%). The share of enterprises investing in acquiring new technologies is small (11.8%). Not only is the share of innovatively active enterprises low, but also the intensity of costs for technological innovation, which is 1.9% in Russia (5.5% in Sweden, 4.7% in Germany). Despite this, a class of private venture investors is beginning to form in Russia. In 2006, the non-commercial partnership "National Commonwealth of Business Angels" (NP "SBAR") was established.
Business angels are individuals and legal entities that invest part of their own funds in innovative companies of the earliest stages of development - seed and start-up. Business angels are the first professional investors investing in innovative companies. Behind them, as a rule, follow venture, and then direct investments. The volume of business angel investments in one company ranges from several tens of thousands to one million euros. Business angels use a fundamentally new venture investment mechanism, under which funding is provided for a long (3-7 years) period, without collateral and guarantees, for a stake (a stake) in the company.
The success of business angel investment is largely achieved through the formation of favorable business and friendly relations between investors, inventors and managers of the company, their joint work as a team. Business angels contribute not only money, but also experience, knowledge and business connections to the company.
Business angel investment is one of the most important elements of the new economy - the knowledge economy. By investing in technology, intelligence, creative teams, the business angel is laying the future well-being for themselves, partners and the country as a whole.
innovative technology strategy market
To summarize, it can be said that t efficiency of resource use and use of alternative, environmentally safe energy sources and production.
As for innovation development in our country, for the transition of Russia to the advanced innovative development path the state should create conditions under which:
- every enterprise that has the opportunity to develop new technologies in the perspective directions of economic growth could gain access to cheap long-term loans;
- any research team that creates new technologies, could receive funding for the implementation of innovative projects and the introduction of the results in industrial production;
- Scientists working in key areas of the new technological order, and universities that train specialists of the appropriate profile, would receive sufficient funding to fully realize their creative and educational potential;
- each firm that is developing new technologies could gain access to loans for carrying out the necessary R & D and regulated markets for its products;
- consumers would be interested in purchasing high-tech products of domestic production;
- business entities would have convenient access to scientific and technical information and could see the prospects for the development of their field of activity and timely master advanced technologies.
1. Innovative Russia 2020 (Strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2020). - M., Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. - 2010
2. Innovative technologies // www.center-yf.ru
3. Top 10 innovative technologies in the world (report of Cleandex information and analytical agency) // www.nanonewsnet.ru
4. Fatkhutdinov RA Innovative management: A textbook for high schools. - Moscow: Intel-Sintez Business School, 2001he world's innovative technologies are now mostly focused on increasing
5. Federal Law of September 28, 2010 "On the Innovation Center Skolkovo."